Weekly Market Update, July 6, 2021

General Market News  

  • Yields fell slightly across the Treasury curve last week as the first half of 2021 wrapped up. The 10-year yield fell about 5 basis points (bps) week-over-week to open around 1.41 percent on Monday morning. The 2-year was down 1 bp to 0.26 percent. The 30-year saw the biggest move, shedding 7 bps to open at 2.03 percent. The 5-year was down 2 bps to 0.89 percent. The 10-year has hovered between 1.5 percent and 1.4 percent for the past several months as investors gauge the global recovery and possible policy changes from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Market Update for the Quarter Ending June 30, 2021

Positive June Caps Off Strong Quarter for Markets

Equity markets rallied in June, which capped off a positive month and quarter for all three major U.S. indices. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record highs in June before pulling back slightly toward month-end. The S&P 500 gained 2.33 percent in June and 8.55 percent for the quarter. The Nasdaq rose by 5.55 percent during the month and 9.68 percent for the quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was held back by poor results from a few constituents during the month, but it managed to gain 0.02 percent in June and 5.08 percent for the quarter.

Pandemic a Non-Issue for the Economy?

From a medical perspective, the pandemic continues. But from an economic perspective? It appears to be over (for now). Nationally, conditions have improved throughout June, with almost all of the country now reopened. Vaccination programs continue, while case growth and hospitalizations have reached pandemic lows. Clearly, the virus is under control throughout most of the country.

Weekly Market Update, June 28, 2021

General Market News

  • Treasury yields moved slightly higher last week. The 10-year opened at about 1.5 percent on Monday morning, mainly unchanged week-over-week. The 30-year was the biggest mover across the curve, picking up roughly 2 basis points (bps) to open near 2.13 percent, followed by the 5-year, which rose nearly 2 bps to open at 0.9 percent on Monday. The 2-year held steady, opening at about 0.25 percent.

Weekly Market Update, June 21, 2021

General Market News

  • The Treasury curve flattened significantly after last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting as investors grappled with the central bank’s hawkish forecasts. The 10-year Treasury yield was mostly unchanged Monday morning, opening at 1.44 percent. The 30-year fell 11 basis points (bps) week-over-week, opening at 2.03 percent. Shorter-dated notes sold off sharply as the 5-year gained 18 bps week-over-week, opening at 0.89 percent, and the 2-year rose 8 bps to 0.23 percent.

Weekly Market Update, June 14, 2021

General Market News

  • With future inflation expectations abated and investors returning to bonds, longer-term Treasury yields flattened last week. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 9.7 basis points (bps) from last week’s open, starting at 1.46 percent Monday morning. The 30-year yield fell 8.5 bps week-over-week, opening at 2.15 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent, up slightly from the previous week.

Weekly Market Update, June 7, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve flattened slightly last week as fixed income investors weighed the reopening of the economy against the possibility the Federal Reserve (Fed) will taper its policy later in the year. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.58 percent and closed about 2.2 basis points (bps) lower. On Monday morning, the 10-year opened at 1.57 percent, reversing most of last week’s move. The 30-year opened Monday at 2.25 percent, 7.8 bps lower than last week’s open. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year Treasury opened at 0.16 percent, 0.6 bps higher than last week’s open.

Market Update for the Month Ending May 31, 2021

Mixed May for Markets

Equity markets started off strong in May, but volatility later in the month led to a partial pullback. The early gains brought the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to all-time highs. The Nasdaq Composite suffered from additional volatility due to its heavy technology weighting. The S&P 500 gained 0.70 percent, and the DJIA saw a 2.21 percent return. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.44 percent.

Medical and Economic Trends Point to More Improvement Ahead

Things continued to improve in May, with declines in new cases, deaths, positive test rates, and all other metrics. In fact, the month closed with conditions at their best since last summer. We did see some slowdowns in vaccination rate, but a substantial part of the population has been vaccinated—enough to have controlled the virus. Right now, the medical risks are low and are likely to decline further in the month ahead.

Weekly Market Update, June 1, 2021

General Market News

  • The yield curve moved modestly lower again last week as the Federal Reserve (Fed) continued its patient monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury yield opened the week at 1.62 percent and closed more than 4 basis points (bps) lower at 1.58 percent. It opened at 1.63 percent on Tuesday morning. The 30-year opened at 2.33 percent, slightly up from last week’s open of 2.32 percent. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2-year opened at 0.15 percent, 0.6 bps below last week’s open.